Wednesday, March 2, 2011

Statistics are no Substitute for Judgment

There are some people who love numbers – they love the symmetry of them, they love the challenge of calculations, and quadratic equations thrill them for the answers they reveal. Anyone who has even a cursory understanding of science will know Einstein’s most famous and perfect equation of energy and mass in: E=mc². Those who read The Da Vinci Code will remember the heart pounding pace of Robert Langdon solving one problem after another using amongst other things, the Fibonacci sequence of numbers. Numbers in an integer sequence of: 0-1-1-2-3-5-8-13-21. (Each subsequent number is the sum of the previous two.)

Now you might be thinking that our lives are not ruled by numbers, but think again. Famous 1906, Italian economist Vilfredo Pareto created a mathematical formula to describe the unequal distribution of wealth in his country, observing that twenty percent of the people owned eighty percent of the wealth.

From this initial observation, came a world of extrapolation. The 80/20 Rule can be applied to anything: a few (20 percent) are vital and many (80 percent), are trivial. This applies to all sorts of possibilities – 20 percent of customers generate 80percent of the income, 20 percent of people cause you 80 percent of the problems. It seems true, but of course it’s not an exact science by any stretch of the imagination.

Numbers are literally a thing of beauty. Do you know why some faces are more appealing than others? According to experts there is a ‘perfect formula for the ideal face. They say the key to the ideal arrangement of female facial features is the measurements between the eyes, mouth and ears. Scientists have narrowed down to a simple mathematical ratio of 1:1.618, otherwise known as phi, or divine proportion, to set standards of beauty.

In The Elements, the most influential mathematics textbook ever written, Euclid of Alexandria (ca. 300 BC) defined this proportion derived from a division of a line into what he calls its ‘extreme and mean ratio’ from which ‘phi’ or ‘the divine proportion’ or the ‘golden ratio’ was derived. Who could have guessed that this innocent-looking line division would have implications for numerous natural phenomena ranging from the leaf and seed arrangements of plants to the structure of the crystals of some aluminium alloys, and from the arts to the stock market?

Until recently I had never heard of the Mehrabian Rule but to my amazement I have found an underlying formula that makes perfect sense in understanding what people are really communicating to others. Most parents, particularly parents of teenagers, will instantly appreciate the simplicity of this rule which Albert Mehrabian can apply to most conversations. Essentially it’s this: listen to my voice and look at my body language to know what I’m really trying to say to you, rather than rely on the words that are spoken. Mehrabian found that in communication:
• 7% happens in spoken words
• 38% happens through voice tone; and
• 55% happens via general body language.

His conclusions, while very generalised, basically suggest that:
• it's not just words: a lot of communication comes through non-verbal communication
• without seeing and hearing non-verbals, it is easier to misunderstand the words; and
• when we are unsure about words and when we trust the other person less, we pay more attention to the non-verbals of what we hear and see.

Yes this makes perfect sense to me. It explains why printed words in emails and text messages and on Facebook can so easily be misconstrued or misunderstood. Printed communication is becoming more common that face-to-face communication in this technologically driven world. Similarly drawing conclusions about organisations, by making statistical comparisons can be fraught with danger too.

In an educational setting, many parents are drawn to make comparisons between schools by using ACARA’s MySchool and the new version MySchool 2.0, which will be released on Friday, 4 March. While the statistical information found at MySchool on Caloundra City Private School is very favourable, particularly in the 2010 NAPLAN results, it’s important for parents to understand that there is much more to a school than the direct comparison of one school against another in a purely statistical and graphical format. Improvements in NAPLAN results over time will vary depending on each cohort of students. CCPS has, over the last two years, shown ‘higher than average’ gains by our students, thanks to the excellent teaching and learning programs of our teachers. Remember that NAPLAN results are a diagnostic tool used by teachers to improve educational outcomes, NAPLAN results were never intended to be used to make comparisons between schools.

Add to the mix the financial data that is now available to all parents on all Australian schools, there is bound to be some misperceptions and some confusion. Students in independent and state schools depend on both federal and state government grants. However, the average yearly funding per student differs significantly with the funding figure for government schools being $12,639 for each student, while in the independent sector, is $6,076 for each student – almost half that of state schools.

In addition to this, most independent schools, like CCPS, have borrowed significantly to fund capital projects in the School, with the average level of debt across the sector is around $7000 per student. As a relatively new school the level of debt for CCPS is higher than many other schools but will over time, like in all schools, fall as the school grows. The data available will also show that 52percent of income of independent schools comes from the after tax income of parents, which represents a significant investment of our parents in the education of your son or daughter.

While we have much to celebrate at Caloundra City Private School, it’s important for parents to keep the statistical information in perspective. Just like in the Mehrabian Rule, much of what really happens in a school, like the values, the quality of teaching and learning, and your son or daughter’s happiness cannot be quantified and defined by a statistical measure. Walking into a school or a classroom, talking to the teacher or seeing the quality of work that your son or daughter produces or how happy they are, is a wonderful way of seeing the real value of what we do at the School.

Yes the world is full of numbers and whether we like it or not, much in life, like in mathematics, can be quantified, complicated and simplified - often simultaneously. As Gudder once said:
"The essence of mathematics is not to make simple things complicated, but to make complicated things simple."

However, some formulae, some statistics may oversimplify education to factors that are meaningless. The real heart of the School is in the actual School – not in the statistics of the School. How do you quantify happiness, or self esteem or confidence? Surely these are every bit as important (if not more important) as the students’ achievements. Yes I love numbers too, but I love them for the way that they better inform me and help me build a strong, vibrant and engaging learning environment. Henry Clay summed it up (no pun intended) when he said:

'Statistics are no substitute for judgment. '

Karon Graham
Principal

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